Yaneek Page | Brace for impact

As the world tunes in to the return of Donald Trump to the presidency of the United States, Jamaica must brace for the impact of what promises to be another turbulent political era. Businesses and entrepreneurs must closely monitor developments in trade and international diplomacy and their impact on industry, remittances, tourism, travel, immigration and visa policies.

While it may feel safe, and even satisfying to watch US politics from a distance, the unfortunate reality is that we are not insulated from American policies. Our fortunes are deeply intertwined with our neighbours to the north, and the stakes are higher than ever.

In an early salvo last Thursday, Trump posted the following Thanksgiving message on the social media platform X, providing a clear preview of what we can expect after he is sworn in office next January: Happy Thanksgiving to all, including to the Radical Left lunatics who have worked so hard to destroy our country, but who have miserably failed, and will always fail, because their ideas and policies are so hopelessly bad that the great people of our nation just gave a landslide victory to those who want to MAKE AMERICA GREAT AGAIN! Don’t worry, our country will soon be respected, productive, fair, and strong, and you will be, more than ever before, proud to be an American!

It was an unpresidential and unsettling Thanksgiving message that echoed boorishness of the past, ironically on a day meant to embody unity, kindness and a spirit of community in the present.

Since his election win, Trump has espoused divisive and polarising rhetoric, and doubled down on an aggressive and hostile nationalist agenda that places narrow American interests above all else, at any costs. Now it may seem easy to laugh from the sidelines but US policy decisions, especially under a president like Trump, have consequences that ripple across borders and affect everyday life for us. They are the Caribbean’s largest trading partner, leading source of tourism, and home to our largest diaspora. Any tremors there can lead to social and economic tsunamis at home. In other words, a direct and immediate impact. Therefore, while it may appear theatrical, this s no comedy show.

Historical context

Readers may recall that Trump’s presidency from 2017 to 2021 provided critical lessons on how US policies under his leadership can quickly and profoundly reshape global relationships, particularly for nations heavily reliant on US economic engagement. During his first term, several of his policies had a disruptive impact on global trade, geopolitics, and economic relationships.

For us in the Caribbean, his administration’s posture and actions exposed considerable vulnerabilities to the region’s economic landscape.

Immigration policies: Trump’s restrictive immigration policies, including the reduction of temporary work visas (such as H-2B), caused disruptions for many foreign workers. Last week US media reported that companies are already preparing for potential fall-out and that US colleges with large international student populations have issued immigration guidance to students encouraging them to return to the US before inauguration. Trump has consistently advocated for stricter immigration laws. Changes to temporary work visa programs and heightened enforcement could further restrict access to the US market, and may impact remittances, our leading net earner of US dollars, on which we relied heavily during the pandemic when the tourism industry shut down.

Protectionist trade measures: Trump’s withdrawal from multilateral agreements like the Trans-Pacific Partnership and his preference for bilateral deals underscored his administration’s emphasis on renegotiating trade relationships to favour the US. While Caribbean trade with the US was not a primary target, heightened global trade tensions and tariffs affected supply chains and escalated prices. Trump’s proposed 10% universal baseline tariff on imports and his ongoing push to decouple from China signal a more isolationist trade stance.

De-risking and financial scrutiny: US regulatory pressure on financial institutions led to increased de-risking in the Caribbean. Several banks terminated correspondent banking relationships, complicating cross-border transactions and limiting access to global financial markets.

Energy and environmental policy: Trump’s support for fossil fuels and his withdrawal from the Paris Climate Agreement, even amid caustic international criticism, demonstrates his indifference toward climate change. This is not the news we need at this time when we are facing climate departure, rising sea levels, scorching temperatures and extreme weather events. Our region will likely now struggle to find US support for climate resilience initiatives, climate change mitigation support and disaster recovery.

Other geopolitical shifts: In his first term, Trump pressured NATO allies to increase their defence spending, accusing many of not meeting their financial commitments. He also recognized Jerusalem as the capital of Israel and moved the US embassy there in 2018, intensifying regional tensions.

It is predicted that a new Trump administration may defund multilateral cooperation and foreign aid and other critical assistance that we have come to rely on. Readers may also recall that Trump began withdrawal proceedings from the World Health Organization, accusing it of favouritism toward China. It was a totalitarian move that shocked the world, and it could hardly have come at a worse time. Unfortunately, his latest rhetoric is expected to translate to policies that will escalate tensions with China, Mexico and Canada, with potential policy spill overs, uncertainty, and a de-prioritisation of economic cooperation.

The return of Trump’s ‘America First’ agenda poses many potential harmful consequences for us in Jamaica, as is true for most other countries around the world. This is not a time when we can afford to dismiss or disconnect from US politics.

One love!

Yaneek Page is the programme lead for Market Entry USA, and a certified trainer in entrepreneurship.yaneek.page@gmail.com