NACTA: PNM holds early advantage ahead of election

LET'S DO THIS: Prime Minister Dr Keith Rowley sings along to Isasha's song Let's Do This during the PNM's Special Convention at the National Academy for Performing Arts, Port of Spain on August 18. Also in the photo are Finance Minister Colm Imbert and Energy Minister Stuart Young. - Photo by Ayanna Kinsale

THE PNM seems to hold the advantage over its political opponents ahead of the next general election.

This was one of the findings of a poll done by the North American Caribbean Teachers Association (NACTA) in August.

NACTA released its findings on September 9.

The poll, it said, was based on interviews with 490 respondents, who are supporters of all political parties and independents and also reflect the demographics of Trinidad and Tobago.

NACTA said the majority of these respondents believe the PNM will retain power in the next election.

The election is constitutionally due next August, but the law allows for it to be called by next November.

Some respondents think the Prime Minister could call an early election because the opposition “is badly divided and in disarray.”

But NACTA said these respondents believe “the PNM faces no threat of losing power now or any time in 2025.”

The PNM twice called early general elections, in 1995 and 2010, and lost both times.

NACTA said respondents believe the UNC’s only has a chance of winning the election if it cleans house of unappealing and disliked MPs, attracts credible faces and reaches an accommodation with other, smaller political parties.

Nevertheless, approximately 58 per cent of respondents are unhappy with the performance of the PNM in government to date.

NACTA said both Dr Rowley and Opposition Leader Kamla Persad-Bissessar have very high unfavourability ratings with voters.

Persad-Bissessar’s unfavourability, NACTA continued, puts the UNC at a big disadvantage ahead of the election.

“The opposition UNC is not attractive to independent, unaligned voters and disgruntled traditional PNMites.”

NACTA said this means the UNC cannot hope to win the election “solely on people’s dissatisfaction with the incumbent government and the unpopularity of the Prime Minister.”

NACTA also said Rowley and the PNM currently are better accepted in their traditional constituencies and some of the marginal constituencies than the UNC.

“The PNM’s support is buttressed by MPs concentrating on performance and delivery-related issues in targeted constituencies that it will retain or capture.”

NACTA said the PNM has been poaching the UNC’s political base, attracting support and wooing credible candidates “who are likely to win, making gains and solidifying itself in enough seats to remain in government for a repeat of the 30 years’ rule that it enjoyed from 1956-1986.”

The UNC, NACTA continued, has never repeated the feat of the 2000 election, when it defeated the PNM, largely on its own.

“Even in that election there was an alliance with dissidents from the PNM,” it noted.

The UNC won that election 20-16.

There were 36 constituencies at that time.

There are now 41. The group also said the poll showed the UNC’s traditional base has shrunk since 2010 and the party “does not have enough support to win in 2025.”

NACTA said based on the poll’s findings, the UNC may only be able to win one seat from the PNM, while the PNM could take away four seats the UNC holds to widen its current parliamentary majority.

The current division in the House of Representatives is 22:19 in the PNM’s favour.