Jamaica's economic growth flattens in June quarter

The Planning Institute of Jamaica (PIOJ) has reported that the economy remained relatively flat, with an estimated growth of 0.1 per cent during the April to June 2024 quarter.

The PIOJ forecasts the economy to decline in the July to September quarter from a range of negative 1.0 to negative 0.1 per cent at best, due to damage from Hurricane Beryl.

"Short-term prospects for the overall economy are negative, largely associated with the adverse impact of Hurricane Beryl on production activities,” stated Director General Dr Wayne Henry during a quarterly briefing on September 4.

Despite these challenges, there remains potential for recovery in the latter half of the fiscal year, supported by rebuilding efforts and improvements in business confidence, he stated.

Henry expects a downturn in output levels from tourism, agriculture and mining going forward.

The outlook for the fiscal year ending March 2025 hovers between negative 1.0 and 1.0 per cent. This, however, depends on the pace of recovery from the fallout caused by Hurricane Beryl. 

Returning to the June quarter, the Goods Producing Industry grew 0.7 per cent, and the services industry grew 0.1 per cent. 

Construction activity fell by 2.4 per cent in the quarter reflecting the largest contraction by sector. It was due to "a downturn in activities in both the Building Construction and Other Construction components" stated Henry.  It was the third consecutive decline for the sector which previously was the fastest growth sector during the era of pandemic lockdowns.

Other sectors declining at lesser levels were Wholesale & Retail Trade, Repair and Installation of Machinery, down 0.9 per cent; and manufacturing, flat at 0.0 per cent.

Despite these challenges, the economy was bolstered by 2.7 per cent growth in Agriculture, Forestry & Fishing as weather conditions improved in the June quarter. This improvement will, however, be negated in the July to September quarter due to the passage of Hurricane Beryl.

business@gleanerjm.com

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