Cedric Stephens | Re-examining the ongoing hurricane season from hell

October is month number five of the six-month-long 2024 Atlantic Hurricane Season, described in my April 14 article, based on research, as hellish. With two-thirds of the season over, I decided to re-examine the experts’ prediction after Hurricane Helene’s devastation last Sunday of Florida, Georgia, North Carolina, South Carolina, Tennessee, and Virginia in the United States.

Members of the Jamaican Diaspora, no doubt, were among the estimated 4.5 million persons who were affected by the storm. The death toll has now passed 200. The impacts of catastrophic hurricanes and other hazards are often ignored when they do not directly affect us. This is unfortunate. There is much to be learned from overseas disaster events.

The second half of today’s article will show how the combined actions of politicians, local government officials, construction-industry interests, and others left homes in North Carolina more exposed to the ravages of Hurricane Helene. This situation is not improbable locally given many reports in this newspaper and elsewhere about non-compliance with building and other regulations.

Listed among the eight items that were highlighted in the forecast by Colorado State University’s Tropical Meteorology team, led by Dr Phil Klotzbach, was the following: “There is a 42 per cent chance of major hurricane landfall for the Gulf Coast from the Florida Panhandle westward to Brownsville, Texas. The 134-year average for (a major hurricane event) for this region is 27 per cent”.

Forecasters predicted a 56 per cent increase in the probability of a major hurricane during 2024 as compared to the 134-year average. Hurricane Helene was a major hurricane. It made landfall in Florida’s Big Bend region as a Category 4 storm, the most powerful hurricane on record to hit that area.

James Wright wrote in The Canary that the extreme weather resulting from Hurricane Helene “led to 40 trillion gallons of water falling, according to meteorologist Ryan Maue, a former chief scientist for the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. This caused vast flooding, submerging entire towns in western North Carolina, Florida, Georgia, Tennessee, and the Carolinas. The storm also caused catastrophic damage, flooding electricity substations and plunging millions into darkness”. Steve Bowen, chief science officer at Gallagher Re, a reinsurance company, estimated that the economic losses due to Helene may rise to about US$35 billion.

Wright argues that Hurricane Helene is not an isolated incident. He links it to other global weather events and climate change. Scientists have found that the climate crisis has impacted the likelihood or severity of extreme weather events in 80 per cent of cases studied. In Brazil, in May, for example, parts of the Rio Grande do Sul State experienced 500 to 700 millimetres (19.5 to 27.5 inches) of rainfall in 10 days. That was almost half the average annual rainfall in little over a week. Over 100 people were killed. One month earlier, The United Arab Emirates faced its heaviest rainfall since records began in Dubai. One year’s rainfall fell in 12 hours.

“The climate crisis also disrupts rainfall patterns and leads to droughts. This was the case for four consecutive seasons in Kenya, its worst drought in 40 years. Then, in early May, floods suddenly hit, killing at least 228 people and displacing around 212,630,” he said.

Christopher Flavelle, a New York Times climate reporter who has covered building codes for almost a decade, filed the following report on October 3: The amount of rain that Tropical Storm Helene unleashed over North Carolina was so intense, no amount of preparation could have entirely prevented the destruction that ensued.

But decisions made by state officials in the years leading up to Helene most likely made some of that damage worse, according to experts in building standards and disaster resilience.

Over the past 15 years, North Carolina lawmakers have rejected limits on construction on steep slopes, which might have reduced the number of homes lost to landslides; blocked a rule requiring homes to be elevated above the height of an expected flood; weakened protections for wetlands, increasing the risk of dangerous storm water runoff; and slowed the adoption of updated building codes, making it harder for the state to qualify for federal climate-resilience grants.

Those decisions reflect the influence of North Carolina’s home-building industry, which has consistently fought rules forcing its members to construct homes to higher, more expensive standards, according to Kim Wooten, an engineer who serves on the North Carolina Building Code Council, the group that sets home-building requirements for the state.

The Jamaica Observer, in its August 7 editorial, welcomed the announcement from the prime minister that the Government “will appoint a committee to review Jamaica’s overall response mechanism to natural disasters and make suggestions to strengthen the system”. These comments were made after Jamaica was hit by the outer bands of Hurricane Beryl when it passed south of the island on July 3 and damaged the transmission and distribution infrastructure of the electricity provider.

As the North Carolina example teaches, the mission of the proposed disaster risk committee must not be limited to the disaster-response mechanism – whatever this phrase means. If Jamaica is to avoid the egregious and long-standing policy failures that were recently uncovered in one US state, a whole-of-government approach must be adopted. The development of appropriate responses to climate change and the implementation of strategies to build resilience must not be left to elected officials.

Cedric E. Stephens provides independent information and advice about the management of risks and insurance. For free information or counsel, write to: aegis@flowja.com or business@gleanerjm.com.