Analyst: PNM treated poll like general election

Senior Reporter

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Political scientist Dr Bishnu Ragoonath says the People’s National Movement (PNM) campaigned for the Lengua/Indian Walk by-elections like a general election.

And using Monday’s by-election as a yardstick, fellow political scientist Dr Shane Mohammed said the United National Congress (UNC) should be concerned about all marginal constituencies it holds as the 2025 General Elections approach.

The Elections and Boundaries Commission (EBC) released its preliminary results of the Lengua/Indian Walk by-elections yesterday, revealing that PNM candidate Autly Granthume received 1,986 votes, while the UNC’s Nicole Gopaul got 1,394, a margin of 592. Independent candidate Peterson Morales got ten votes.

In the Quinam/Morne Diablo by-elections, UNC’s Sarah Sookdeo got 2,239 votes over PNM’s Anderson Nanan with 976.

The combined total of electorates in the two districts was 16,834, with a voter turnout of 40.29 per cent in Lengua/Indian Walk and 38.57 per cent in Quinam/Morne Diablo.

It contrasted with the August 2023 Local Government Elections (LGE), where voter turnout was 35.23 per cent in Lengua/Indian Walk and 31.88 per cent in Quinam/Morne Diablo.

The EBC said there were no requests for recounts in either district. Last elections, the EBC declared a tie between Granthume and Gopaul following recounts.

Speaking with Guardian Media yesterday, Ragoonath noted the above-average turnout for by-elections, especially for the PNM, which got more votes than it did in the last three LGE polls.

He believes that by treating the by-election campaign as if it were a general election, the PNM ensured a significant portion of supporters voted, more than they would in an LGE.

“It would suggest that what the PNM did was simply to treat this, not as a Local Government Election but rather as a referendum on the UNC and its representative in Moruga/Tableland, particularly so when the MP for the constituency was the former councillor for that particular district,” Ragoonath said.

Ragoonath said the campaign and results show the PNM fighting hard for the constituency, bearing in mind that it is a marginal seat. He said if Monday’s pattern continues into the general election, the constituency could return to the PNM.

While Granthume will not be the PNM’s candidate for the general election, Ragoonath said he will have to ensure the delivery of services to make sure the support garnered for the by-election transfers continues to 2025, allowing the PNM to maintain that level of voter turnout.

Ragoonath said the UNC had not necessarily dropped votes compared to the last elections, but it could mean the party’s favour is declining in the constituency.

He said the difference was one party getting more supporters out to vote.

Meanwhile, Mohammed said the PNM never left the campaign trail in Lengua/Indian Walk, realising the district was critical to the overall Moruga/Tableland constituency, which it is vested in recapturing.

He said the district was one of the few swing seats in the Princes Town Regional Corporation (PTRC), so regaining a presence in the municipality and having some say in the constituency is critical to the PNM.

Mohammed said the party knew it needed to put in extra work, approaching the campaign as an “all of PNM” approach, understanding numbers and effectively assessing what polling divisions it needed to improve. He said one of the critical features was Prime Minister Dr Keith Rowley making it his business to visit the district.

“He showed a vested interest in the party, leading from the front, whether it was one time or whatever, by putting key personnel within the Government to also work within the framework of building bridges. When I say building bridges, I mean connecting with people and pursuing interests. He did that,” Mohammed said.

Mohammed said it would have been sensible for Opposition Leader Kamla Persad-Bissessar to be on the ground in Lengua/India Walk instead of focusing on the UNC’s internal elections.

Mohammed said that using the by-elections as a yardstick, the UNC should be focused and concerned about every marginal seat, given that it has been able to hold on to the San Juan/Barataria, Chaguanas East, Moruga/Tableland, and Pointe-a-Pierre constituencies.

“The UNC has some serious work to do in terms of ensuring that what is in their hands they hold on to, and then they start making inroads into and setting the groundwork with credible candidates in the other critical seats that will determine the outcome of a general election.”